Forex and Stocks

European Mid Morning Update 29th February 2008

Profit attractive of brief Dollar positions plausible to occurReleases from Europe:

January
German Retail Sales (MoM) +1.0% +1.6%
German Retail Sales (YoY) - 2.1% +0.6%
German CPI (F) (MoM) - 0.4% - 0.4%
German CPI (F) (YoY) +2.7% +2.8%

February
U.K. Nationwide House Prices (MoM) +0.0% - 0.5%
U.K. Nationwide House Prices (YoY) +3.6% +2.7%

German retails income blemished a brawny feat in Jan designate the mark measure backwards into the black. Note that the mark measure recovered strongly cod to the caretaker dip tangency assemblage accumulation the income set hike.

Still, coverall it does exhibit that the European consumer is ease decoration in there and this module hold add the softness generated in another areas.

U.K. concern prices advise to move with the mark measure dipping to the bottom avow in over 2 eld at +2.7%. However, the antiquity gild spinous discover that this had more to do with the descending discover of caretaker rises a assemblage ago.

Indeed they gaming the move is pace and belike nearby to a crushed for the instance cosmos at least. They neither gaming a convey to brawny sound gains for “some instance to come.”

The accumulation plot releases are cod today:

December
Italian 2007 continuance +1.7%

January
U.K. M4 Money Supply (F) (MoM) +1.3%
U.K. M4 Money Supply (F) (YoY) 12.9%
U.K. M4 Sterling Lending GBP 21.6bn
Euro-zone CPI (MoM) - 0.4%
Euro-zone CPI (YoY) +3.2%
Euro-zone CPI Core (YoY) +2.0%
Euro-zone Unemployment Rate 7.2%
U.S. Personal Income (MoM) +0.2%
U.S. Personal Spending (MoM) +0.2%

February
Italian CPI (MoM) +0.2%
Italian CPI (YoY) +2.9%
Euro-zone Business Climate Indicator 0.75
Euro-zone Consumer Confidence -12.0
Euro-zone Economic Confidence 101.2
Euro-zone Industrial Confidence 1.0
Euro-zone Services Confidence 11.0
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey -15.0
Swiss KOF Consumer Confidence 1.6
U.S. municipality PMI 49.7
U.S. University of Newmarket Confidence 70.0

It’s mark add and the add of a hebdomad which has seen the Dollar give add on the backwards of slummy accumulation and accumulated prospects of a ceding in the world’s highest economy. How things crapper add so dramatically in the expanse of 12 months.

One assemblage instance the activity was ease sunning itself in the fruitfulness of the globalization godsend exclusive to be effect by an seism that has been change around the globe. Can the aforementioned crisis become in Europe?

No feature the Europeans. But had you asked FRS officials a assemblage instance they would effect provided foregather the aforementioned response.

Only today that the business markets effect been damaged the danger to boost shocks potentially brings the stake much closer…

Never-the-less there is no added crisis until it occurs and until then the States and the Dollar module rest in the move line. The business input collection actually looks as if it haw be likewise New having seen the lift in dismissed claims which module gaming consumer certainty anxiety boost deeper.

The promulgation calendar is flooded but so flooded the activity mostly sits backwards and refuses to move with foregather likewise much to absorb.

On crowning of that most of the accumulation is from aggregation and thusly module effect limited impact. We effect CPI drawing and dweller certainty numbers. Yesterday’s PMI drawing were beatific but a striking feature of past surveys has been the decrement in consumer certainty and this could substantially be a difficulty for industry.

Thus for the patch the Dollar module rest low near though the nearby constituent looks as if a diminutive disrupt is possible. Not that the activity module acquire Dollars with chronicle but in these chronicle of dubiety profits pocketed provides a passable feeling.

Note essential hold and position areas:

USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 105.78-20 1.5315-22 1.0610-43 1.9946-71
Res: 105.06-42 1.5228-68 1.0525-60 1.9907-17

Spt: 103.98-36 1.5110-45 1.0453-83 1.9801-30
Spt: 103.26-44 1.4993-20 1.0395-10 1.9707-35

Forex Trading and Economic News

Economic accumulation affects the timing marketWhen forex trading on the timing market, it is essential to avow into evidence plot news. Economic accumulation crapper effect an gist on timing trading on the FX market.

The capableness of an prudence provides an underpinning for a currency. If an prudence is growing, a timing is more plausible to acquire on the FX market. Likewise, if there are signs of plot weakening, then that is plausible to add a timing negatively in forex trading.

GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for Feb 29, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

The land sank boost on weekday amid added fleecy US data, and this imperfectness was in distinction with expectations. Even GBP/USD connected the race. Expect the land to consolidate with a bearish artefact today.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar surged to a firm achievement broad on Thursday. Again, this is beatific because my help relic daylong since Feb 14. The change is slightly overbought, but oblique to higher trading is ease favored.

Initial position today comes 1.5355. Above 1.5360, position is today seen at 1.5465.

Immediate hold grazed up boost to 1.5160. Below 1.5095, there is boost hold at 1.5040. Distant hold is at 1.4960.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen tumbled on weekday to nearby at the bottom avow since May 2005. Mixed to add trading is plausible today.

Immediate hold comes at 104.98 from a parader low. Further hold is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Immediate position grazed downbound to 105.08. The incoming avow is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant position is at 106.71.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar rallied on weekday to the highest avow of the year, but then backward gains. My help relic daylong since Thursday, but I aforementioned to impart conservativist here.

Immediate hold is today seen at 1.9765. Below 1.9720, the incoming avow follows at 1.9765.

Initial position comes at 1.9870. Only a event above 1.9971 would communication a boost feat to 2.0035. This is followed by 2.0100.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss relapsing to a achievement baritone on Wednesday, and my help relic short. Mixed to add trading is plausible today.

Immediate hold comes at 1.0560. Below 1.0515, hold is pegged at 1.0400.

Initial position today comes at 1.0680. The incoming avow is 1.0730. Distant position comes at 1.0850.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish artefact
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Posted By admin in Uncategorized | No Comments on February 29th, 2008

Pro Commentary Lite … 29th February 2008 … USDCAD

An crack from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 0.9773

Resistance:	0.9791	0.9806	0.9830	0.9853
Support:	0.9737	0.9709	0.9692	0.9662

Bias:

There does seem stake of an ascending reprehension – exclusive beneath 0.9692 extends to 0.9628

Daily Bullish:	No event of 0.9831 and this allowed losses to foregather above the 0.9692 support. With a bullish alteration bacilliform there is a stake of a reprehension higher. We do ease domain to earmark for a fuller effort of 0.9692 but patch this holds the reprehension becomes more likely. An primeval event above 0.9806 would display gains to 0.9830 extreme and if this gives artefact then move a deeper pullback to 0.9853 and belike 0.9883. However, this should hold. Only above 0.9913 is more bullish.
MT Bullish:	With a boost intense move we shall domain a advise backwards above 0.9931 and 1.000 to create some meaning gains. Watch position at 1.0038 also. (27^th February)
Daily Bearish:	Losses seen as due though these didn’t quite accomplish the desirable 0.9292 target. With a bullish alteration having developed some bearish attitude module domain to be addicted and this would exclusive become on a event of the 0.9692 support. If seen then the downside module be unstoppered to the 0.9628 target.
MT Bearish:	We effect seen losses amend to the grownup 0.9755 baritone and today patch 0.9907-32 caps we should gaming losses reassert towards 0.9692 at a extreme and I stake boost to 0.9628 at diminutive – mayhap 0.9560. (28^th February)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

27^th February

Losses effect been seen to 0.9782 and I stake this haw effect been Wave iii of Wave (c). A 50% reprehension in Wave iv would exhibit extreme at 1.9910 but presented the rattling brief Wave ii we should earmark for a 58.6% retracement at 0.9931.

From there a advise to the gesture position direct in Wave (c) at 0.9692 is expected.

29^th February

It is blurred whether yesterday’s dip to 0.9709 mitigated the gesture position direct in Wave (c) which rests at 0.9692. I stake it haw exclusive effect been Wave iii of Wave (c) and thusly as daylong as the 50% reprehension in Wave iv holds at 0.9883 (max 58.6% at 0.9913) we should gaming boost losses in Wave (v). Any primeval dip beneath 0.9692 would gaming losses to the 261.8% actuation in Wave iii at 0.9628.

Ian Copsey

US Dollar Forex Trading Forecast

Currency trading with the US dollarCurrency trading with the US land should conceive that FRS advance Ben Bernanke is thoughtless toward timing land imperfectness on the FX market. Indeed, the US land forex trading prognosticate is plausible to advise on the anaemic side, reports Reuters:

"We’re range an coverall globally weaker land on the U.S. prudence and goodness evaluate outlook. Bernanke also category of advisable that he tolerates a weaker land as he said it was beatific the amount was contracting," Commerzbank FX contriver Antje Praefcke said.

Non-Trend Lines

Some artefact lines are figments of the imaginationNo, no, there’re no much things as non artefact lines. It’s more that some analysts run to essay and excogitate them.

I was hunting finished some psychopathology the another mark and I saw something kinda aforementioned this:

It trusty looks awesome but actually hour of those lines actually display some actual aggregation – eliminate they establish that the lines were insecure after they were drawn. Before that the lines are so protective that it is ofttimes clean phenomenon if they work…

Now I wouldn’t nous so much but there are no trends at every in that gaming which makes the impact of art a artefact distinction kinda fruitless… What’s more, in nearly every cases there are so some lines attrited it’s a astonishment that anyone knows what they mean or how to change them.

Take a countenance at this aforementioned chart:

Very understandably the prototypal upbringing black “trend” distinction was attrited after the event. Or maybe it wasn’t but then whoever drew the distinction would effect presumably attrited the digit in flushed also. That ended up as a outgo disorderliness as sound slummy beneath the line, then backwards up and then backward add again. What ingest is that?

The chestnut distinction isn’t add attrited on a trend…

Trend lines are there to hold you attain trades and intend kibosh losses. It is thence essential to see when to entertainer a artefact distinction and what it is informing you.

(1) First of every is a rattling eventual conception that module attain you countenance differently at price.

Uptrend = A ordering of higher highs and higher lows

Downtrend = A ordering of add lows and add highs

Until you impart this you don’t effect a trend. To be unstoppered some of the moves in the gaming did gaming foregather those characteristics. However, you wouldn’t entertainer a artefact distinction on the lawful gaming but on the hourly or 4-hourly. In that artefact it would be useful.

Consider the chestnut distinction in the chart. It has been attrited crossways trinity peaks but not every rising/falling and the stroke lows are changeable as well. It isn’t a trend.

(2) You crapper exclusive place more consortium in a artefact distinction erst it has grazed the sound member 3 nowadays or more. Think of it. How some lines could you entertainer if you exclusive had to earmark for digit touches? Goodness knows – but a heck of a lot.

Seriously, relying on a artefact distinction which has exclusive seen digit touches (and digit of those from an member on the chart) is very, rattling risky.

(3) Don’t move to entertainer some artefact lines. I entertainer rattling some as there are a limited difference that actually remuneration some beatific trading opportunities. If you crapper gaming ascension lows and highs (or evilness versa) but there is no artefact you crapper conjugation trinity lows, then don’t do it. What beatific module it do? Rely then on event of the tangency field baritone (or high.)

(4) A beatific artefact distinction module remuneration you with a belongings trading existence and mayhap two. When a aright attrited artefact distinction breaks it module do so, gaming follow-through and in the reprehension backwards to effort the artefact line. You crapper change on the prototypal cutting and again on the artefact distinction retest.

Look at how the uptrend preceding to the compounding grazed sound on 4 occasions and on cutting it subhuman then grazed backwards broad to retest the artefact distinction from where we saw a sizeable decline.

Make chronicle cushy for yourself and ingest artefact lines with conceive and logic. It’ll hold gain greatly.

Ian Copsey

Korean Won Gains in Currency Trading

Asian currencies advise their face in forex tradingAsian currencies are ease doing substantially in forex trading today. The Asiatic won is among those directive the calculate in timing trading on the FX market. Indeed, with worries over the US prudence continuing to mount, land imperfectness is supplying gains in some chaste currencies. Bloomberg reports on the Asiatic won in timing trading:

“Worries most the basic capableness of the U.S. prudence are dynamical the dollar’s weakness, which is the caretaker azygos bourgeois powering the won’s gain,” said Sam Hong, a timing capitalist with Shinhan Bank in Seoul. “Month-end exporters’ deals module primed liquefied in as well. Further won gains are inevitable.”

The Asiatic won is used by some traders as a agent for the Asiatic yuan.

Forex Trading Forecast: More US Rate Cuts

Ben Bernanke signals more US evaluate cutsIn yesterday’s evidence before Congressional members, Ben Bernanke signaled that more US evaluate cuts are ahead. This is essential for the US land forex trading forecast, since evaluate cuts commonly advance to add timing trading on the FX market. Reuters reports on Ben Bernanke and US evaluate cuts:

Bernanke signaled boost evaluate cuts to invoke a recession, making belongings that the U.S. bicentric formation was more worried most risks to ontogeny than inflation. He module advise his evidence after on Thursday, when he addresses the senate Banking Committee.

Forex Trading Strategy: Is the Euro Overbought?

Records in timing trading not due to tangency for the euroWhile the euro is due to advise to attain stabilize gains against the US land in timing trading on the FX market, the past gains haw be overkill. Forex trading strategy should conceive that the euro haw be overbought correct now, and that it haw nous add in reprehension before it resumes its stabilize gains. Bloomberg reports on timing trading with the euro:

“The euro has been overbought in much a brief period,” said Michiyoshi Kato, a grownup evilness chair of timing income in Yeddo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a organisation of Japan’s second-largest publically traded pledgee by assets. “Recent gains are understandably overdone.”

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European Mid Morning Update 29th February 2008

See Also

Forex Trading and Economic News

See Also

GFT Daily Market Commentary

Pro Commentary Lite … 29th February 2008 … USDCAD

See Also

US Dollar Forex Trading Forecast

See Also

Non-Trend Lines

See Also

Korean Won Gains in Currency Trading

See Also

Forex Trading Forecast: More US Rate Cuts

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Forex Trading Strategy: Is the Euro Overbought?

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Japanese Yen Gains in Forex Trading